From more than 400,000 yuan/ton, to now the lowest 90,000 yuan/ton, since the first quarter of 2017, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has plummeted several times,

and it has almost become a "cabbage price" all the way down, and most industry enterprises are free at the edge of the break-even line.

Analysts believe that the weak price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is closely related to the rapid expansion of production capacity of relevant enterprises in recent years,

 and the market oversupply is closely related to demand. However, with the steady growth of demand for new energy batteries, coupled with cost increases and other factors,

 the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has reached the bottom, or will usher in a warming inflection point in 2019.

Price bottoming

With the rapid development of the new energy automobile industry, 

the importance of lithium hexafluorophosphate as a raw material for lithium battery electrolyte has received market attention. 

Since the second half of 2015, the domestic price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has started to rise, rising to more than 400,000 yuan/ton in a few months, 

and maintained a high level of operation in 2016.

The optimism of the new energy automobile industry, coupled with the high profits of lithium hexafluorophosphate,

led to domestic and foreign enterprises have been involved in the industry, and the production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased rapidly in 2016. 

In 2015, the domestic production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate was only 18,180 tons, and by the end of 2016,

 the production capacity was increased to 22,480 tons, and a number of companies announced their planned construction plans. 

In addition to the above old fluorine chemical enterprises, the lithium hexafluorophosphate market has also joined a number of new faces, 

such as Shi Da Shenghua, Yongtai Technology and so on. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate fell on the back of high supply.

In the first quarter of 2017, the domestic price of lithium hexafluorophosphate began to fall, and the current price is about 90,000 yuan to 130,000 yuan/ton,

 many industry enterprises are in a state of loss, and some have shut down production lines.

Li Yunfeng, vice chairman of Polyfluoro, said in an interview with reporters that from the existing production capacity in the current market, 

combined with the declared production plan, there are about 40,000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphates supplied in China.

 According to the relevant statistics of last year, the market demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate is about 20,000 tons, so the oversupply situation still exists in a short time.

However, this market dilemma of oversupply is expected to reach a balance of supply and demand with the steady growth of market demand.

Li Yunfeng believes that according to conservative statistics, there are about 100 million fuel vehicles in the world at present, according to the public data of Volkswagen,

 BMW and other leading manufacturers, car companies' plans for their own new energy vehicles account for 20% of the total, 

even if the global car ownership does not grow by 2025, the production of new energy vehicles will reach 20 million. 

20 million new energy vehicles, according to each car battery storage about 65 degrees of electricity, it needs 1300G watt-hours, 

according to 1 degree of electricity 0.75 yuan calculation, is about 1 trillion market.

In his view, lithium hexafluorophosphate can catch up with such a trillion market space by 2025 with an annual growth rate of about 30%. In 2018,

 the domestic market demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate has reached 26,000 tons, and by 2019, the global demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate will increase by 50%, 

reaching 40,000 tons. The situation of oversupply in the market or will be improved next year, 

considering the actual contribution rate of production capacity of various manufacturers, the market may even be in short supply.

Expected warming

In less than two years, lithium hexafluorophosphate fell rapidly from the "altar" of high prices, down nearly 80%, the bottom of the price has been highlighted, 

and the market is expected to gradually pick up.

Some analysts believe that in 2018, the competition in the lithium hexafluorophosphate market has further intensified, the industry has entered a period of adjustment, 

and the reshuffle has accelerated. Although the total production capacity will be surplus in 2018, there is a structural contradiction of high-end shortage and low-end surplus,

 and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has basically bottomed out, and there is little downside. With the adjustment of the national new energy subsidy policy,

 the downstream demand of the industry has resumed growth, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to stabilize in the future.

In the fluorine chemical industry for many years, Li Yunfeng also has a deep understanding of product price fluctuations. 

He believes that the new energy industry has obvious seasonality, the third and fourth quarters is the peak of production, so the closer the end of the year, 

the demand for the month may be far greater than the actual market supply, coupled with winter production restrictions and other factors,

 product prices will form a significant trend. In 2019, the domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate market is expected to reach a balance between supply and demand, 

or even in short supply, in this context, product prices are expected to form an upward inflection point in the third and fourth quarters of next year.

In addition, like other industries in new energy, the lithium hexafluorophosphate industry also shows a trend of differentiation due to uneven levels. 

With the continuous improvement of the safety and stability requirements of new energy batteries, there are first-mover advantages, 

and technologically advanced enterprises will continue to expand their leading advantages, while the living space of latecomers will be further compressed.

 Polyfluoro's current new lithium hexafluorophosphates project is progressing smoothly and is expected to reach a total annual output of about 8,000 tons next year,

 and the cost lead will continue to expand.

Another factor that is expected to increase the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is that the current price of fluorite, the raw material of the fluorine chemical industry,

 is constantly refreshing a record high.

Statistics show that as of November 6, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3,408.33 yuan/ton, hitting a record high. 

Due to the impact of environmental protection inspections, some domestic fluorite devices have been stopped recently,

 mine and flotation devices have been stopped for maintenance, the supply of fluorite has been relatively reduced, 

and the price of fluorite has been rising. In addition, with the decrease of temperature, the northern fluorite flotation device will continue to stop, 

which will aggravate the tight supply of domestic fluorite.

This article is derived from:证券时报